How do our cars age?
07/30/2020
There is much discussion about how many classic carsthere are and how the overall stock is developing. Nevertheless, there are only a few detailed studies on how, for example, a car vintage develops over the years and decades. We have tried to compile a few figures for the German car market (source KBA) and have come across some interesting differences.
For example, if you compare the 1981 vintage, i.e. 39-year-old classic cars today, with the 1991 vintage (youngtimers at the transition to classic cars), you will notice that the stock figures start to plateau at a much higher level. Of the 1981 vintage, 2.33 million were registered in Germany, of the 1991 vintage 4.16 million. After 20 years, however, 11.57% of the 91 vintage remained, while the 81 vintage had already been decimated to 5.5%. Today, there are still around 26,000 cars built in 1981 on German roads, but over 147,000 built in 1991 - despite the scrappage scheme.
It is almost more interesting to compare car vintages according to their age.
This second graph compares the stocks of cars built in 1981, 1991 and 2001 with each other according to their increasing age. At the age of about 14.5 years, all these stocks were halved. However, the progression of the older 1981 and 1991 cars is clearly different from that of the 2001 vehicles. These seem to be disappearing almost linearly, albeit much more slowly than their predecessors. This is probably due to the fact that more modern cars are more durable than their predecessors, at least for a certain period of time, and car owners are also more loyal to them.
But how will this curve continue in the coming years? Will it remain linear or will it even take a nosedive because these cars in particular are already relatively complex and depend on a very healthy supply of parts ? And then even a minor technical problem can suddenly turn a car that has been running well into a total economic loss.
You are welcome to share your views on these topics in the comments field, we look forward to hearing from you!
