The forecast for the electric car as the classic car of the future
05/25/2022
We are always amazed at how quickly time passes. The Mercedes-Benz A-Class? It was only launched recently. Yet it was launched in 1997, 25 years ago! In five years' time, fans will be driving it to classic car meetings.
Looking at it this way, most of us will of course live to see the time when the electric cars of the years 2012 to 2022 become youngtimers and classic cars. But do these vehicles really have a real chance of still being on the road in 20 or 30 years' time? There is a lot to be said for this. Electric cars are significantly less complex and consist of fewer components. Some things are also standardized. After all, cars are primarily software that brings hardware to life and makes it drive.
However, there are some trends that do not bode well for current electric cars. For example, it is highly likely that the current generation of battery technology will be completely outdated in just a few years. By then, batteries will be able to store more power, recharge faster and be more durable overall. By then, no one will be crying a tear for today's lithium-ion batteries. And the manufacturers of today's cars will have no interest in keeping these batteries and the cars in which they are installed alive beyond the warranty period. For third-party suppliers, these cars will be a black box that makes it difficult to replace individual or even entire batteries. Upgrades will hardly be possible without extensive modifications to the control and cooling systems. Things won't look much better with the rest of the car's components. And when the LCD display no longer lights up, the whole car will usually be finished as well.
Perhaps the current generation of electric cars is at a similar point to the cars around 1910. The technology changed so quickly back then that used cars could hardly find a buyer after a few years. Unlike today, however, a car from 1910 can still be repaired in 2022, provided you have the technical knowledge and talent. This will no longer be enough for a Tesla or Hyundai built in 2022 in 2052. But nobody wants to use old cell phones today, apart from a few exceptions. And since the car is mutating into a cell phone on wheels ...
