A luxury problem
01/23/2020
What are the classic prices doing? This is a question we are often asked. General observations usually don't help. A few days ago, we reported on the auction results from Scottsdale/Arizona, and we will soon be following the auctions in Paris.
But what is the long-term trend? The valuations of Classic Data and the like are often unable to fully reflect the changes, especially when the change in value happens quickly.
Let's take the example of the Ferrari 250 GT/L Lusso, built 351 times between 1962 and 1964. 28 transactions are listed in our auction database between 2012 and 2019. If the sales prices achieved are placed on the time axis, the following picture emerges:
The curved curve shows the trend (in the form of a polynomial curve). Due to the limited number of data points, the trend should not be overestimated, but it is clear that prices rose until around 2016 and then fell again. Currently, it seems that Lussos are trading at around the 2012/2013 level. An interesting anomaly can be seen in 2015/16, when four cars were offered that could not be sold. Presumably, the consignors had hoped to still receive prices at 2014 levels. This was not successful. Estimates and reserve prices later fell again and sales were completed.
And what is the "right" price for a Lusso today? As always, it depends on the condition and history, of course, but a Lusso will always be an attractive car that only exists in small numbers. Classic Data currently quotes EUR 1.4 million for a 250 GT/L in condition 2. A certain downward correction of the values is probably still necessary here.
