How wrong were we with our forecasts a year ago?
01/02/2020
You shouldn't just publish predictions, you should also check how wrong or right they were. Almost exactly a year ago, we dared to make some predictions for the classic/young car year 2019 and now it's time to document how good they were:
Prediction:
Wanted classic cars from the seventies to nineties will increase in value (again) in 2019
Review:
The forecast was probably not entirely wrong, but even with hindsight, it cannot really be substantiated. In fact, good prices were paid for young cars, as shown by the results of the RM Youngtimer Collection auctions, as well as the latest results from Bonhams in Bonmont near Geneva.
Forecast:
Pre-war cars and cars from the forties to fifties will continue to suffer from declining demand and thus falling valuations
Review:
This is almost certainly true, with exceptions proving the rule .
Forecast:
One or two classic car fairs will throw in the towel in 2019
Review:
Hamburg and Düsseldorf did not take place, but other trade fairs have already been "counted out ".
Forecast:
More manufacturers along the lines of Jaguar and Aston Martin will jump on the bandwagon and revive classic cars
Review:
Thank goodness inflation in this area was limited, so this forecast was incorrect .
Forecast:
Electrified classic cars will continue to gain in attractiveness and manufacturers and suppliers will launch new products (including for retrofitting) in this area.
Review:
In fact, we have seen a lot here, such as the electric Beetle, the electric duck and other specialists who have electrified classic cars .
Forecast:
Increasing insurance problems will cause difficulties for racing events with cars that are not road-legal, so more and more events will insist on the normal road registration of the participating vehicles
Review:
This has not yet become apparent in this country
Forecast:
Diesel and increasingly also petrol engine driving bans will also restrict classic cars' access to city centers
Review:
Paris, but other cities have also enforced some fairly strict driving bans, which have also affected classic cars.
Forecast:
While modern/new cars are losing value faster and faster due to accelerated technological innovation (e.g. in batteries, control systems, assistance systems and onboard entertainment electronics), cars built 15 or more years ago will depreciate more slowly
Review:
It is probably still too early to give a definitive thumbs up or down here.
Forecast:
Initial thoughts on channeling traffic (e.g. separation of partially/fully autonomous and free-driving cars) are being included in the political discourse
Review:
We are (thankfully) not there yet.
Forecast:
The major public exhibitions and classic car events will (again) report rising visitor numbers in 2019. The interest in classic cars/youngtimers remains unbroken ...
Review:
This prediction is probably somewhat accurate.
So we weren't entirely wrong a year ago, and the forecasts are likely to be largely applicable for 2020 as well.
But join in the discussion, perhaps you see one or two points differently?
