Is the classic car glut coming?
07/27/2016
The statistics seem to predict it. A veritable glut of classic cars is looming. Not only has the average age of cars on German roads been rising for years and has now reached 9.2 years, but the number of H license plates is also increasing by leaps and bounds, with 388,120 in 2015 compared to 349,633 a year earlier (source: VDA).
Even more important for predicting future classic car stocks, however, is a statistic that shows the cars that are more than 15 years old, i.e. in principle will become classic cars in 15 years. A whopping 7,861,499 cars on German roads belong in this category, compared to 7,395,389 in 2014 and 4,223,515 in 2007. Unfortunately, the statistics do not show the earlier years, but it can be assumed that there were probably over two million in 1992.
And apparently "only" just under 40,000 of these two million actually managed to survive another 15 years and then become classic cars with an H license plate.
It probably won't be that much different in 2030, when today's 15-year-olds will actually reach classic car age. A real flood of classic cars is therefore not to be feared.
Incidentally, the picture above does not show classic cars, but utility vehicles in 1955 queuing at the Constance-Meeresburg ferry. It can be assumed that of all the vehicles pictured, the VW Beetle dominated even then, at most one or two cars made it into the modern era.
